Consumer price indices for the year Rosstat. About inflation

Inflation in Russia

Annual inflation in Russia at the end of 2018 was 4.3%, with the key rate at the end of the year at 7.75%. It should be noted that inflation in Russia increased by 1.7 times compared to 2017, although it remains quite low in the entire history of the country.

The Bank of Russia announced the inflation target for the end of 2019 and 2020 at a meeting of the Board of Directors on March 22, 2019, which was made based on an analysis of the market situation, namely:

Annual inflation in February-March 2019 is below the expectations of the Bank of Russia. In February, the annual growth rate consumer prices increased to 5.2% (from 5.0% in January 2019). As of March 18, annual inflation was estimated at 5.3%.

According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, the local peak of annual inflation will be passed in March-April 2019. At the same time, the Bank of Russia lowered its annual inflation forecast for the end of 2019 from 5.0–5.5 to 4.7–5.2%. The quarterly growth rate of consumer prices in annual terms will slow down to 4% in the second half of 2019. Annual inflation will return to 4% in the first half of 2020, when the effects of the weakening of the ruble that occurred in 2018 and the VAT increase will be exhausted.

The initial statement regarding the inflation forecast for 2018 - 2020 was made by the Chairman of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, following the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on September 14, 2018:

...inflationary risks from external conditions have materialized. As a result, the inflation forecast has been raised even taking into account the decisions taken today. We expect inflation in the range of 3.8–4.2% at the end of 2018, 5–5.5% at the end of 2019, with a return to 4% in 2020.

Inflation has reached 4% and we would like to further clarify the description of the target.
Our target is inflation at or near 4%. Why "close"? Because it can fluctuate up and down around 4%.
Previously, we talked about the horizon for achieving a goal, that is, we determined a point, set a specific period (for example, the end of 2017) when we reach the target value. Now we have this the goal becomes permanent.

For greater clarity, in addition to the inflation rate, the comparative table also includes the refinancing rate of the Bank of Russia and the key rate in effect at the end of the corresponding year.

The dynamics of the inflation rate in Russia for 1991 - 2018 looks like this:

* Inflation is calculated based on consumer price indices published by the Federal State Statistics Service.
** On December 11, 2015, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia established that starting from January 1, 2016:

• the value of the refinancing rate is equal to the value of the key rate of the Bank of Russia determined on the corresponding date and its independent value is not established in the future. The change in the refinancing rate will occur simultaneously with a change in the key rate of the Bank of Russia by the same amount.
• from January 1, 2016 Government Russian Federation will use the key rate of the Bank of Russia in all regulations instead of the refinancing rate

*Dynamics of consumer prices by groups of goods and services (month compared to the corresponding month of the previous year, %
**Dynamics of consumer prices by groups of goods and services (month to previous month, %)

In Moscow and St. Petersburg, prices increased over the month by 0.3% (since the beginning of the year - by 1.9%).

The largest increase in prices in March was observed for fruits and vegetables. Thus, white cabbage became more expensive by 36.2%, onions – by 19.2%, carrots – by 8.6%, bananas – by 3.8%, beets – by 2.9%. At the same time, prices for cucumbers decreased by 5.4%, oranges - by 4.2%, tomatoes - by 2.7%.

The tables provide data on inflation and the key rate taken from the websites of the Bank of Russia and the Federal State Statistics Service.

Inflation – this is a steady increase general level prices for goods and services in the economy. Reverse process- a decrease in the general price level is called deflation.

Consumer Price Index as an Inflation Indicator

Various price dynamics indicators– producer price indices, gross domestic product deflator, consumer price index. When people talk about inflation, they usually mean the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the change over time in the cost of a set of food, non-food goods and services consumed by the average household (i.e., the cost of the “consumer basket”). The choice of the CPI as the main indicator of inflation is associated with its role as an important indicator of the dynamics of the cost of living of the population. In addition, the CPI has a number of characteristics that make it convenient for widespread use - simplicity and clarity of the construction methodology, monthly calculation frequency, and prompt publication.

The periods over which the CPI is measured may vary. The most common comparisons are the level of consumer prices in a certain month of the year with their level in the previous month, the corresponding month of the previous year, December of the previous year.

Statistical monitoring of prices, necessary calculations and publication of data on the CPI in Russia is carried out by federal Service state statistics.

Features of the Russian consumer basket

In Russia, as in countries with emerging markets in general, a characteristic feature of the consumer basket is a fairly high share of food products in it (in 2014 - 36.5%). Their prices are quite variable. To a large extent, fluctuations in inflation in the food market are determined by changes in supply volumes, primarily by agricultural yields in our country and in the world, which significantly depend on weather conditions. Since the share of food products in the consumer basket is high, fluctuations in their prices can have a significant impact on inflation as a whole.

Another feature of the Russian consumer basket used to calculate the CPI is the presence of goods and services in it, the prices and tariffs of which are subject to administrative influence. Thus, the state regulates tariffs for a number of public utility services, passenger transport, communications, and some others. In addition, prices for tobacco products and alcoholic beverages significantly depend on excise tax rates.

Consumer demand is satisfied through goods and services, both domestic and foreign production. There are no statistical data on the share of imports in the CPI, but an idea of ​​it in terms of goods can be given by the share of imports in the structure of commodity resources retail(in recent years - about 44%). The significant share of merchandise imports in the consumer basket determines the significant impact of changes in the ruble exchange rate on inflation.

Inflation factors

Prices may rise faster or slower. In the first case, they talk about an increase in inflation, in the second – about its decrease. There are various reasons for changes in inflation. Let's look at them using the example of accelerating price growth. If the level of demand for goods and services exceeds the ability of supply to satisfy it, they speak of a pro-inflationary effect demand side factors. In some cases, the rapid growth of demand may be affected by too accessible loans and accelerated growth of nominal incomes of economic entities. Often these sources of excess demand are called "monetary factors of inflation"- pressure on prices due to the creation of excess money.

Inflation can also rise when an imbalance in the market for a product or service arises due to insufficient offers, for example, due to crop failure, restrictions on the import of products from abroad, or the actions of a monopolist.

Inflation can be caused by growth costs for the production and sale of a unit of product - due to rising prices for raw materials, materials, components, increased enterprise costs for wages, taxes, interest payments and other costs. Increasing costs can also lead to a decrease in production volumes and, further, to the formation of additional pro-inflationary pressure due to insufficient supply.

An increase in prices for imported cost components may be due to both an increase in world prices and a depreciation of the national currency. In addition, the weakening of the national currency can directly affect the prices of final products imported from abroad. The overall effect of a change in the exchange rate on price movements is called "carryover effect" and is often considered as a separate factor of inflation.

Economic theory identifies as a special factor inflation expectations– assumptions regarding the level of future inflation, formed by economic entities. The expected rate of inflation is taken into account by producers when making decisions regarding setting prices for their own products, wage rates, determining production volumes and investments. Households' inflation expectations influence their decisions about how much of the funds at their disposal to allocate to savings and how much to consumption. The decisions of economic actors affect the supply and demand of goods and services and, ultimately, inflation.

Negative consequences of high inflation

High inflation means a decrease in the purchasing power of the income of all economic entities, which negatively affects demand, economic growth, the standard of living of the population, and public sentiment. Depreciation of income reduces opportunities and undermines incentives to save, which prevents the formation of a stable financial basis for investment. In addition, high inflation is accompanied by increased uncertainty, which makes it difficult for economic actors to make decisions. All together, this negatively affects savings, consumption, production, investment and, in general, the conditions for sustainable economic development.

Benefits of Price Stability

Price stability means maintaining low growth rates in consumer prices, which economic actors neglect when making decisions. In conditions of low and predictable inflation, the population is not afraid to save in national currency for long periods, since they are confident that inflation will not depreciate their deposits. Long-term savings, in turn, are a source of financing investments. In conditions of price stability, banks are ready to provide resources to borrowers for long periods at relatively low rates. Thus, price stability creates conditions for increased investment and, ultimately, for sustainable economic development.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) characterizes the change over time in the general level of prices for goods and services purchased by the population for non-productive consumption. The CPI is one of the most important indicators characterizing the standard of living of the population.

The CPI applies:

to assess changes in the cost of living and the level of inflation in the country;

to review government social programs(the basis for increasing the minimum wage, indexation living wage, indexation of the minimum pension, justification of subsidies and price subsidies that do not allow a decrease in the level of consumption of essential goods and services by the population);

in determining state policy in the field of finance, regulating the real exchange rate of the national currency, analyzing and forecasting price processes;

for recalculation of indicators of the system of national accounts from current to comparable prices.

The CPI measures the change in the value of a fixed set of goods and services in the current period compared to its value in the previous (base) period.

The “basket” of basic consumer goods and services is fixed so that changes in the CPI cause only changes in prices and not changes in consumption patterns resulting from changes in income or the purchase of other goods. Therefore, the CPI is also called the cost of living index.

The consumer set for calculating the CPI consists of three large groups:

Foodstuffs,

Non-food products,

paid services provided to the population.

To calculate the CPI, the formula is used Laspeyres price index, but not an aggregate form, but a weighted arithmetic average of individual price indices, calculated based on indicators of the cost structure. The weight is the share of consumer expenditures of the population on a certain representative product.

The Laspeyres price formula is transformed as follows:

,

where Q 0 is the cost of an individual product in the consumer “basket” of the base period;

- the share of household expenditures on a specific j-th product in the total volume of consumer expenditures in the base period;

- individual basic price index for the j-th representative product,

, - average prices of goods, respectively, for the current and base periods. They are calculated as simple arithmetic averages of prices recorded at selected reference outlets:

,

where M is the number of retail outlets.

Index shows, by how many times (or by what percentage) consumer spending would change in the current period compared to the previous one if the level of consumption remained the same when prices changed.

The formula with individual basis indices is difficult to use because... Over long periods of time, the range of goods sold changes, goods are replaced, and the structure of commodity flows changes. Therefore, the individual basic price index is calculated as the product of chain individual price indices:

The use of chain price comparisons facilitates the introduction of new products or their substitution when the need arises.

The calculation of the consolidated CPI is carried out on a monthly, quarterly basis, as well as on an accrual basis for the period from the beginning of the year. The CPI is calculated monthly for the previous month of the current year and for the corresponding month of the previous year, as well as on a cumulative basis from the beginning of the year to the corresponding period of the previous year. The calculation of price indices for a quarter, half-year, period from the beginning of the year is carried out using the chain method, i.e. by multiplying monthly consumer price indices.

Statistics show that the use of the Laspeyres formula tends to overestimate the actual price change. Thus, if prices for some consumer goods increase relative to other goods, then consumers reduce spending on these goods. By replacing more expensive goods with some cheaper ones, consumers can buy a set of goods and services that is adequate to the previous one, but it will cost them less than it would have cost them to buy the previous set at the new prices.

The consumer price index calculated using this formula does not take into account qualitative changes. If the quality of goods and services improves, their prices should also increase. However, it is assumed that the entire increase in the monetary value of the consumer “basket” is entirely caused by inflation, and not by an improvement in the quality characteristics of goods and services. Consequently, calculations based on a fixed set are correct only for a short period of time, if during this time there are no significant quantitative and qualitative changes in the structure of consumer spending. Under these conditions, the CPI will adequately reflect changes in the cost of living.

The consumer price index using the modified Laspeyres formula is calculated at the regional and federal levels.

The consolidated price index for Russia is calculated as a weighted average of regional indices, the weight being the share of the population of the corresponding region in the total population:

,

Where - consumer price index in the k-th region;

- the share of the number of the k-th region in the total population of Russia.

Money Purchasing Power Index calculated as the reciprocal of the CPI:

Its value shows the relative change in the purchasing power of money in the hands of the population.

Statistical characteristic for calculating price dynamics over a certain period of time.

Calculations are performed in the following order:

• objects for calculations are selected through a representative sample;
• a system for weighing parameters is selected;
• a formula is selected to calculate the indices.

Types of Price Indexes

Without exception, all price indices are classified according to the main objects for calculation into the following varieties:

• Industrial. Characterizes the price level for products and services provided, which are purchased by production organizations (factories, factories, developers) to solve their own problems.
• Agriculture. Characterizes dynamic indicators of changes in prices for food products.
• Transport tariffs. Includes prices for cargo transportation, payments for transit (gas, oil).
• Foreign trade. Characterizes the dynamic indicators of prices for products that are exported/imported. The cost of items produced for domestic sale is not relevant when calculating this parameter. For example, if one company produces the same product for both domestic and foreign sales, then only exported products are taken into account when calculating the index.
• Deflator. Characterizes fluctuations of a certain macroeconomic parameter in the current period relative to the base one.
• Manufacturer prices. Shows changes in prices in any economic area. It differs from the industrial index in that it allows you to track fluctuations in profits from the sale of products and services.
• Consumer rates. Each country compiles a list of products and services that a person needs to ensure a minimum standard of living. This list is known as the shopping basket. The Consumer Price Index indicates fluctuations in its value. In essence, this indicator indexically reflects the cost of a standard market basket, which includes domestic and foreign products purchased within the state. When calculating it, the price of the consumer basket is compared in the current and base time periods.

Methods for calculating the price index

The calculation methods are no different for different types indexes. When carrying out calculations, both actual and average price indicators are calculated. The actual index characterizes the absolute deviation of the price level. The average price indicator reflects the share of a particular product in a representative sample, while adjusting not only the price level, but also its structure.

Based on the number of goods being valued, price indices are divided into individual and group. The indicator of the first type characterizes fluctuations in prices for a certain type of product. The group index indicates the change in the value of all goods in the sample. It is calculated as the sum of the prices of the current period divided by the sum of the prices of the base period.

Three methods are used to calculate the price index:

1. Paasche. Indicates how the prices for goods sold in the current period have changed in comparison with the prices of the base period. When calculating, the product of the prices of the current period and the volume of products sold in it is divided by the product of the prices of the base period and the volume of products sold in the current period.
2. Laspeyres. Shows the change in the cost of goods sold in the base period. When calculating, the product of prices of the current period and the volume of products sold in the base period is divided by the product of prices of the base period and the volume of products sold in it.
3. Fisher. The Paasche index slightly reduces the degree of inflation, because it does not take into account shifts in the assortment in the current period in relation to the base one. The Laspeyres index increases the degree of inflation, since it does not take into account the effect of substitution of expensive products with cheaper ones. To eliminate such disagreements, the Fisher index is used, which is the geometric mean of the Laspeyres and Paasche indices. During the calculation, the root of the product of the Laspeyres index and the Paasche index is found.

At the end of 2017, the Russian economy set a record for inflation – however, a positive one. The figure for the year was 2.5% (previously the government predicted an inflation rate of 4%). Such low inflation is good for the consumer, who is no longer too surprised by rising prices in stores. But this is also a reflection of the crisis in the Russian economy, a sign of weak economic activity. What is inflation in Russia in 2018 - official data from Rosstat reflects this figure today.

Rosstat's accounting of inflation levels

First of all, it is worth starting with this question - whether Rosstat is involved in calculating the level of inflation in Russia in principle. The fact is that this department provides slightly different information - Rosstat calculates the consumer price index. Although this value is one of the most important indicators when calculating inflation in Russia, it is still not the only one. Periodic reports on inflation in Russia are made by another department, namely the Ministry of Economic Development.

In particular, on April 16, 2018, the Ministry of Economic Development presented its forecast for annual inflation based on the results of April.

Consumer price indices as a percentage

The consumer price index in 2018, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, amounted to 100.4% in May, from the beginning of the year - 101.6% (in May 2017 - 100.4%, from the beginning of the year - 101.7%).

In May, in 23 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the increase in consumer prices was 0.5% or more, of which in the Novosibirsk region - 0.9% as a result of an increase in prices for non-food products by 1.3% and in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug - 0.8% as a result of an increase in prices for non-food goods and services by 1.9% and 1.0%, respectively.

In Moscow and St. Petersburg, the consumer price index for the month amounted to 100.4% (from the beginning of the year - 101.8% and 102.0%, respectively).

The decline in prices for fruits and vegetables had a significant impact on the dynamics of consumer prices for food products. Thus, cucumbers fell in price by 16.9%, bananas - by 12.4%, tomatoes - by 10.5%, garlic - by 4.1%, grapes - by 2.2%, oranges - by 1.4%. At the same time, lemons became more expensive by 19.9%, fresh white cabbage - by 16.6%, beets - by 11.7%, carrots - by 7.3%, onions - by 4.7%, apples – by 2.9%.

The consumer price index for 2018, according to Rosstat, recorded a decrease in prices for most of the observed types of pasta and cereal products. Thus, buckwheat became cheaper by 2.9%, semolina - by 0.6%, peas and beans - by 0.5%, cereals"Hercules" - by 0.4%. At the same time, millet prices increased by 2.0%.

Prices for live and chilled fish, frozen squid, chilled and frozen cut salmon fish increased by 1.0-1.3%, pork, chilled and frozen chicken, black long tea, frozen fish fillets, bakery products made from premium flour piece - by 0.6-0.8%

What annual inflation is expected in 2018

Annual inflation is the inflation rate over the past 12 months. That is, not for the calendar year as such, but for the past 365 days. Annual inflation at the end of April 2018 will reflect how much the ruble depreciated between May 1, 2017 and April 30, 2018.

The Ministry of Economic Development's forecast in this regard is all the more interesting because at the beginning of April 2018, the Russian national currency experienced a serious shake-up, when the dollar exchange rate soared from less than 58 rubles to 64 rubles (and on the stock exchange - even up to 65 rubles per dollar). It is clear that the rise in the dollar exchange rate and the decline in the value of the ruble are a serious reason for the rise in inflation in Russia.

However, the Ministry of Economic Development is not inclined to exaggerate the significance of what happened with the ruble last week. According to the forecast presented by the ministry’s economists, the annual inflation rate in April 2018 will be 2.3-2.6 percent.

As the Ministry of Economic Development noted, the fall of the ruble in April will have an impact on inflation in Russia only if its effect lasts long enough. IN currently We see that the dollar and euro rates are falling, the ruble is trying to find a new equilibrium. The only question is what kind of balance this will turn out to be. If the Russian currency returns to its previous values, this will not affect inflation at all.

Inflation in Russia since the beginning of 2018 and forecast for the whole year

If we look at inflation statistics for the first three months of this year, the data is as follows:

• in March inflation was 0.29%,
• since the beginning of the year - 0.81%.

The inflation target set by the Central Bank of Russia for 2018 is 4%.

At the moment, thanks to the regulation of the economy using the key rate, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is successfully achieving this goal. Moreover, at the end of March, when the Board of Directors of the Central Bank once again revised the rate, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, especially noted that so far inflation in the country is growing more slowly than planned. Perhaps the Bank of Russia will even resort to special measures so that inflation accelerates a little and reaches the target 4% per annum.

Based on materials from bankiclub.ru