Dollar dynamics for September. Dollar exchange rate forecast for September. What will happen to the dollar exchange rate in September?

The official dollar exchange rate established by the Bank of Russia as of September 4, 2018 is 67.74 rubles, the euro exchange rate today is 78.63 rubles.

The dollar exchange rate at Sberbank today is set at 66.78 rubles. upon purchase and 69.20 rub. when selling by a bank, the euro exchange rate today is 77.45 rubles. and 80.27 rub. when buying and selling by Sberbank, respectively.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for the week 2018 in Russia: expert opinion

Forex Club Group analyst Ivan Marchena states that the ruble, apparently, will fall towards the dollar and euro until any certainty appears regarding new US sanctions against the Russian economy.

At the same time, according to him, we can say that the negative effect of sanctions has, to some extent, already been played out by the market, because conversations about them have been going on for a long time. Presumably, until the American Congress returns from recess, the ruble will behave with restraint, but moderate negative dynamics cannot be ruled out.

It is possible that during the month the ruble will be supported by high oil prices, which have settled above $75 per barrel of Brent.

“UNTIL THE APPEARS ANY CERTAINTY REGARDING A NEW PORTION OF AMERICAN SANCTIONS, THE RUBLE-DOLLAR PAIR WILL MOVE IN THE RANGE OF 67-68 RUBLES, RUBLE-EURO IN THE CORRIDOR OF 78-79 RUBLES. IF THE SANCTIONS ARE VERY PAINFUL, THE RUBLE RISKS TO GO BELOW THE MARK OF 70 RUBLES PER DOLLAR AND 80 RUBLES PER EURO,” ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA QUOTES THE EXPERT.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for September 2018 - 75 or 65?

According to positive forecasts, the ongoing situation with sanctions, which have practically not affected the banking sector, the dollar may fall in price to 65 rubles by the end of September.

“TRADE PARTICIPANTS STILL REMAIN SKEPTICISM REGARDING THE PROSPECTS FOR RECOVERY OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY, AT THE SAME TIME THE DIFFERENCE IN RATES OF THE CBR AND THE US FED NOW MAKES INVESTMENTS IN DOLLAR ASSETS MORE ATTRACTIVE AND WHAT CONTINUES TO STIMULATE THE OUTFLOW OF CAPITAL FROM RUSSIA"

At the same time, many investors still hold on to ruble assets and are in no hurry to “merge” them, seeing the prospects for the development of the domestic economy.

According to negative scenarios, the US Congress, which has been going to work since mid-September, is considering a new package of sanctions and thereby scares investors so much that they are running away from the ruble. The ruble is falling lower than ever - the dollar costs 75 rubles. This price lasts until the end of the year, and then, in 2019, the ruble falls even lower, because the exchange rate affected the level of inflation in the country, the level of business development and other important areas of the economy.

“REASSESSMENT OF RISKS FOR THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY ON THE SIDE OF INVESTORS WILL BE SUPPOSED TO OCCUR UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER, BUT ALREADY IN ITS FIRST DECADE, IF THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE CONTAINS THE GROWTH OF THE SUPPLY OF RUBLE LIQUIDITY,” - EXPERTS ARE CONFIDENT.

As you know, the Ministry of Finance has now suspended the purchase of foreign currency in order to contain the fall of the ruble against the backdrop of the August shocks, but the stop will only last until the end of the first autumn month. Further, the situation may surprise you with the speed of development.

The ruble can be helped a little by oil, which is now firmly holding on to a price of $76 per barrel - not bad for the domestic economy. A drop in the price of black gold is predicted, but a small one - there is simply no reason for a sharp price reduction.

On the last day of summer, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation set the dollar exchange rate for the first Monday of September. It amounted to 68.0447 RUB per 1 USD, which is 5.695 rubles more than at the beginning of August. Thus, the strengthening of the dollar against the ruble exceeded 9.13% per month.

Forecast for the dollar/ruble exchange rate in September 2018

August turned out to be a difficult month for the ruble. The Russian economy received another painful blow in the form of sanctions from the United States. Even 2 weeks before the official entry into force of new restrictions, the national currency and the stock market of the Russian Federation experienced the strongest collapse since April. And in the spring, the reason for the collapse of the ruble was sanctions.

The technical picture of the dollar/ruble pair is blurred due to the influence of geopolitics - even the oil factor does not help the ruble. In August, the price of black gold rose by more than 5%, but this did not save the Russian currency from falling. Rising oil prices in the current situation only have a deterrent effect against an even deeper collapse of the ruble.

In addition to the ruble, the position of the currencies of developing economies has weakened. According to Bloomberg analytics, August was a bad month for the currencies of Argentina, Brazil and Turkey.

Most analysts agree that the ruble is expecting a difficult September. This month, the dollar's pressure on the Russian currency will continue. The Americans promised that sanctions would expand, but even in their absence in September, the strengthening of the ruble is unlikely.

The pressure factors on the ruble in September are as follows:

concerns of foreign investors in the Russian debt market - due to sanctions, non-residents are leaving the Russian asset market;

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has suspended currency purchases, but at the end of September the regulator will return to interventions, and this will weaken the ruble;

oil remains unstable in the long term - each drop will be painfully perceived by the Russian currency.

The final forecast for the dollar exchange rate is negative for the ruble. Success for the Russian currency will be to maintain positions in the area of ​​68.00 RUB per 1 USD, but a breakthrough of the American to 74.00 is quite likely.

Financial analysts made a forecast for the dollar exchange rate for September 2018 - Russians can expect another weakening of the domestic ruble and an increase in the prices of major world currencies. The reason for this was a number of factors, both global and internal. One of the reasons is the announced increase in the VAT rate to 20%.

Actions of the Ministry of Finance and analysts' forecast

The world's major currencies began to strengthen against the background of the Russian ruble. Experts cite the following factors as the main reasons associated with the fall of the domestic currency:

• Declining oil prices. Despite the fact that the ruble has seemingly stopped reacting sharply to fluctuations in black gold prices, pressure is still present;
• The growth of the discount rate in the US pulls the dollar with it;
• The State Duma's proposal to soften currency controls over Russian organizations that have come under the influence of Western sanctions;
• Trade wars;
• Neutral result of the meeting between two presidents – Putin and Trump. The optimistic sentiments of investors were not justified.

Speaking about the initiative of the State Duma of the Russian Federation to soften control, Maxim Timoshenko, who holds the post of director of the department of operations in financial markets of Russian Standard Bank, notes the following: “This<по разным оценкам>will lead to a decrease in foreign exchange earnings from $25 to $64 billion over the annual horizon. Continued interventions by the Ministry of Finance to purchase foreign currency on the open market and a reduction in foreign currency supply from exporters will create additional pressure on the ruble.”

Based on all of the above, analysts’ forecast boils down to the fact that in the foreseeable future the ruble may reach 63.6 per dollar.

Dynamics of the exchange rate of the North American dollar to the Russian ruble since the beginning of the year, data from the Central Bank

Speaking about oil, experts recall the ongoing budget policy– the more expensive “black gold” is, the more funds the Ministry of Finance allocates for purchases. The optimal cost of a barrel of oil is called $100 - in this case, the ruble will be able to strengthen at the level of 50 per dollar, which will have a beneficial effect on business. At the same time, the head of the department, Anton Siluanov, emphasized that even at the indicated price, the ruble exchange rate will not be able to return to the levels of four years ago - a little over 30, due to the effect of the budget rule.

Today, the Russian Central Bank has set the official value of the US dollar exchange rate in Russia as of September 1, 2018 - 68.04 rubles. The exchange rate on August 1 was 62.35 rubles. Thus, in the last summer month, the American dollar rose in price by 5 rubles 69 kopecks, or more than 9%. As in April, the August fall of the ruble was largely due to new American sanctions. Accordingly, one can talk for a long time about economic factors, growth drivers and factors of pressure on the ruble, but politics has the strongest effect on the exchange rate. Dollar exchange rate forecast for September 2018 - what experts think about the prospects for the ruble at the beginning of autumn, a table of the possible exchange rate by day until the end of September.

What will happen to the dollar exchange rate in Russia in September

August was the worst month for the currencies of all emerging economies. Since 1999, Bloomberg has been analyzing exchange rates of similar economies around the world and maintains a special indicator that reflects the general health of several key developing economies on the planet. In August 2018, this indicator showed an anti-record: a package of eight currencies fell in price by 6%. The hardest hit currencies were Turkey, Argentina, Brazil and Russia.

Argentina is experiencing a major crisis right now - the national currency of this country is rapidly depreciating, and the huge key rate announced by the local Central Bank - 60% - is not particularly helping to maintain it. Indirectly, the Argentine peso is dragging down other currencies of developing economies. As the Turkish lira did in August.

Even if you don’t pay much attention to the influence of the peso, lira or other currencies, you shouldn’t expect anything particularly good from the ruble in September.

As analysts note, even if no new sanctions against the Russian economy are announced, the ruble is unlikely to strengthen significantly. Almost the only support factor for the Russian currency today is expensive oil. But hydrocarbons have not yet allowed the ruble to fall even further, rather than somehow allowing it to strengthen its position and win back what it lost in early August.

There are several reasons for the weak prospects for the ruble in September, here are the most important of them:

• international investors are afraid to keep their assets in Russian OFZs or other instruments - the risk of sanctions constantly puts pressure on Russia, so many investors even exit Russian assets,
• despite the fact that the Bank of Russia postponed the purchase of foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance until the end of September, this deferred demand in any case puts pressure on the market - it is clear that at the end of the month the Bank of Russia will return to the stock exchange, and this could again strengthen the dollar against the ruble.

Thus, in general, the forecast for the dollar exchange rate in Russia in September 2018 is rather negative. Good result for the ruble, the exchange rate of the American currency will remain somewhere close to the current level of 68 rubles.

Dollar exchange rate forecast in September 2018 - detailed table by day

As is usually the case, not all analysts provide detailed tables by day with a forecast for the dollar exchange rate. On this moment The ruble is too volatile a currency to make an accurate forecast. However, some experts risk offering such forecasts, and we have such tables at our disposal regarding the dollar in September 2018.

In the version of the dollar forecast for September, the table from the analytical agency APECON looks like this:

The forecast of APECON analysts is quite negative - they expect a sharp rise in the dollar exchange rate in the second half of September. At the end of the month, therefore, the dollar may reach the level of 74 rubles.

The August turmoil on financial markets and sharp fluctuations in the ruble made many Russian residents think about the forecast for the US dollar exchange rate for September 2018. Should you urgently buy US currency or, conversely, is now the right time to sell it?

What do experts say on this topic? There is no common opinion among them. Experts are now making extremely contradictory forecasts for the price of the dollar for September 2018.

The Russian government and the Central Bank say that the dollar exchange rate in September 2018 will be stable and will even decrease slightly from the current levels in August (67 rubles per dollar). Analysts from leading state-owned banks also offer similar forecasts. For example, VTB claims that the Russian currency will strengthen to 65 rubles by the end of September with possible fluctuations during the month in the range of 65-69 rubles.

Such forecasts are justified by Russia's large foreign exchange reserves and relatively high prices for exported oil on the global market. For this reason, the country's trade balance (the difference between exports and imports of goods and services) remains positive. Official forecasts ignore any serious problems in the Russian economy, promise low inflation and growth of the national currency relative to key world currencies in the future.

Foreign banks and independent experts

All serious economists and financiers admit that the Bank of Russia now has large reserves to fix the exchange rate of the national currency. On the other hand, it is obvious that the country’s authorities are more interested in weakening it than in stability or strengthening. In August 2018, the Central Bank, acting on behalf of the government of the Russian Federation, actively issued rubles and purchased foreign currency with them on financial markets (mainly dollars were bought). At the end of 2018, the scale of these purchases will likely exceed 2.5 trillion. rubles

The reasons for such a policy can only be guessed at. Some statements by government representatives hint at the need to have additional foreign exchange reserves in case of a significant decline in oil prices. In addition, the external debt of the Russian Federation, which in total amounts to about 0.5 trillion, probably plays a role. dollars.

Independent experts agree that such actions by the Russian authorities, in combination with other unfavorable factors (capital outflow, rising inflation, lack of real economic growth, political sanctions, etc.) will inevitably provoke a weakening of the ruble. The scale and speed of this trend is a matter of debate.

Analysts at Danske Bank (one of the largest banks in Denmark, specializing in Northern Europe and Russia) predict that the price of the dollar in September 2018 will not change significantly and will remain within 67-68 rubles. However, in the future, Danske Bank promises a significant devaluation of the Russian currency to the level of 75 rubles per dollar by mid-2019. This is justified by constantly growing political risks. It should be noted that Danske Bank has always maintained an optimistic view of the Russian currency and the economy as a whole. In particular, the old forecast of this Danish bank for the end of 2018 promised quotes of 52-53 rubles per American currency.

Other experts, who are more negatively disposed towards the Russian currency, predict its rapid and collapsed devaluation, as a result of which the dollar exchange rate will exceed 70 rubles in September 2018. In the future, they promise that prices will drop to 100 rubles and even lower by the New Year.

This forecast is usually justified by a combination of unfavorable factors affecting the Russian economy and finances. In addition to the actions of the country's authorities and sanctions caused by political reasons, pessimists often point to observable trends in the global economy. In particular, significant growth in US GDP, the strengthening of the dollar against most key currencies, international trade wars and the movement of capital from developing countries to the US are contributing to lower oil prices. Indirectly, this may cause an additional blow to the Russian economy and monetary unit in the near future.

What does the ruble exchange rate depend on?

Quotations of the Russian national currency against the dollar are currently determined using market mechanism and depend on a number of conditions. Among them, in particular:

• actions of the Bank of Russia (the country's Central Bank);
• international trade and financial account;
• political relations of the Russian Federation with other countries, primarily with the USA and the EU;
• problems and prospects of the Russian economy as a whole;
• actions of US authorities in the field of trade and finance.

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