What will happen to the dollar (ruble) in the near future - forecasts and expert opinions. What will happen to the dollar (ruble) in the near future - forecasts and expert opinions Analysis of the dollar exchange rate for the year

Forecast of the dollar to ruble exchange rate in Russia for December 2017. What will happen to the currency at the end of the year? Will the dollar collapse? Read the opinions of experts and analysts. The materials were prepared by Natalya Gredina.

Analysts disagree: some predict a bright future for the ruble thanks to good reviews rating agencies regarding Russia, rising oil prices and taxes. Others say that all this is a drop in the ocean, and the ruble will continue to weaken, like the Mexican peso, due to Trump's reforms and the newly increased investment attractiveness of the United States. Experts tried to explain what the ruble will be in the outgoing year and whether it was affected by hurricanes and nuclear missiles. NGS.BUSINESS provides data from a focus survey.

What will happen to the dollar in December 2017?

Analysts from Otkritie Broker JSC predict that the Russian currency will strengthen, and the dollar will cost 55 rubles in December. In their opinion, there was no surprise; experts predicted this indicator back in January, that is, the ruble continues to “smoothly” strengthen. Timur Nigmatullin, an analyst at the market analysis department of the Investment Consulting Department of Otkritie Broker JSC, notes that this is due to rising oil prices, as well as due to the large number of ruble bonds purchased by investors, which also affected the exchange rate. Partly, oil prices began to rise after Hurricane Irma, which attacked the United States, he noted.

So far, Russians have not rushed to invest in foreign currency, Nigmatullin states, even despite the turbulent situation in the banking sector and widespread closures of small banks. This is also evidenced by a recent survey by VTsIOM: according to sociologists, in 2017, 29% of Russians named opening a bank account as the most reliable investment (in 2015, this figure was 21%), while at the same time, only 10% of respondents are interested in currency (since 2015). year, trust in her increased among 2% of respondents).

At the end of 2017, the ruble may strengthen

Alpari senior analyst Vadim Iosub believes that the ruble will be supported by positive global ratings and an active tax period in the rest of the year. In particular, the leading rating agency Fitch, one of the “big three” appraisers, published a rating in which Russia has a sufficient level of creditworthiness. “The agency confirmed Russia’s investment grade rating of BBB- and revised its outlook from “stable” to “positive.” Fitch noted the country’s success in economic policy based on a flexible ruble exchange rate, commitment to inflation targeting and a reasonable budget strategy,” Yosub reports in correspondence with NGS.BUSINESS.

The ruble will also strengthen thanks to taxes - the end of the year is the peak period, Iosub notes.

In addition, the strengthening of the ruble will be affected by slowing inflation, due to which investors have increased interest in Russian government securities, he believes. According to Alpari analyst estimates, this week the dollar will cost approximately 56.9-58.1 rubles, and the euro - up to 68.0-69.3 rubles, both currencies continue to fall in price.

Senior analyst at Freedom Finance Investment Company Bogdan Zvarich also argues that the ruble will strengthen due to oil prices, “despite the deterioration of relations between Russia and its Western partners,” possibly referring to the extension of sanctions from the European Union. Nevertheless, today Brent oil costs 2,600-3,400 rubles, he notes. Zvarich believes that, despite cataclysms and other factors, the level of the national currency will still depend only on this price. “And the Russian currency is unlikely to be able to get rid of this factor in the coming years.

Yes, some other factors, in particular political ones, make adjustments to the dynamics of the ruble, but for the most part they are temporary and in the future the ruble returns to the wake of the energy market,” the analyst said.

At the same time, the prices themselves are formed ambiguously, Zvarich noted. They are also affected by the restriction of oil production, which, according to the OPEC agreement, will last until the end of the first quarter of 2018, as well as a decrease in oil reserves in the United States, which, according to analysts, will last until mid-October. “Both of these factors will, to one degree or another, continue to support the energy market until the end of the year. As a result, it is unlikely that Brent oil will be able to go below $50 per barrel and remain below this level for a long time. We also do not expect oil to rise above $60 per barrel. The fact is that such a scenario will stimulate production growth in the United States and will lead to an increase in supply on the market, which will put pressure on prices and will not allow the market to consolidate above this value,” he comments.

Thus, the ruble is unlikely to fall, the analyst concludes. The maximum price of the dollar at the end of the year will be 64 rubles, he believes, but such a scenario is unlikely - most likely, against the backdrop of strengthening oil prices, it will cost 56-57.5 rubles in mid-autumn.

Skeptics: events in the US will push the dollar up

VTB24 analyst Alexey Mikheev is not so sure about the ruble exchange rate and calls it “floating.” The expert agrees that it will mainly depend on oil prices, but does not exclude the influence of the general investment background in the world, including demand for assets in developing countries and the dollar exchange rate on the Forex market. VTB24 expects that by the end of the year investors will switch their attention from these risky assets, and the dollar will eventually begin to rise. “Assets of all types are now at highs for a year or more, markets are overheated towards the dollar. This applies to world stock markets, commodity markets, and currencies of developing and even developed countries,” he notes.

The dollar will definitely rise due to events in the United States, Mikheev notes.

There, the Federal Reserve began tightening monetary policy and has already raised the rate 4 times, but the dollar has only fallen this year, so the risk appetite outweighed. By the end of 2018, analysts expect 4 more Fed rate hikes, while the balance will shrink starting this October, which will certainly strengthen the American currency. A VTB24 analyst gives the most unfavorable forecast for Russians at the end of the year: according to his estimates, the dollar will cost 65 rubles, and the euro - 72 rubles.

Analysts from Alfa-Bank agree with Mikheev; according to their observations, due to the actions of the Fed, the dollar is indeed seriously strengthening. Capital is flowing out of developing, risky markets, the ruble is weakening, and even rising oil prices will not be able to support it, they believe.

“More than six months into Donald Trump’s presidency, it has become clear that the sanctions regime will remain in place for a longer time than might have been expected, in addition, the likelihood of new sanctions is increasing, and the possibility of resuming Russian-American dialogue is beginning to diminish. Although the sanctions affect individuals and companies and do not affect the sovereign level, they still entail a new wave of negativity regarding Russian assets, which may push investors away from Russian market"- analysts report.

“Even before the new wave of geopolitical tensions, the ruble exchange rate was in an advantageous position compared to the currencies of other developing countries and almost did not react to the May decline in oil prices.

However, even now the ruble is ignoring the recovery in oil prices: although they recently exceeded $60 per barrel, the ruble exchange rate remains under pressure,” experts add.

In recent years, Moscow has been trying to achieve trade in national currencies with Cairo, Beijing, New Delhi, Ankara and many others. But the latest forecasts for the dollar exchange rate for 2017 show that the dependence of the Russian economy on the value of the dollar is still too great. It's stupid to deny it.

Of course, no one can give a guaranteed forecast for the dollar exchange rate for 2017. However, it is possible to highlight the main points that can increase or decrease the value of the Russian national currency.

Senior analyst at the largest brokerage company Alpari Roman Tkachuk shared his thoughts with the editors and gave his latest forecast for the dollar exchange rate for 2017:

Roman Tkachuk | Youtube

« Firstly, the general trend of the dollar strengthening on world markets remains in force; next year parity between the dollar and the euro is likely. Secondly, for last year The ruble has actually developed immunity to fluctuations in oil prices. This is explained, among other things, by the fact that the Russian budget has become less dependent on petrodollars. In addition, in 2016, Brent volatility was up to 3-5% per day, these are normal intraday fluctuations for a commodity asset, but not for the national currency, so the ruble exchange rate was more smoothed.

If for another 2-3 years the ruble exchange rate followed oil prices as if it were pegged, now the dependence has decreased. Nevertheless, the oil factor remains decisive for the ruble. Now the oil market is positive, and we do not rule out that at the end of 2016-beginning of 2017, Brent will test the level of 60-61 dollars per barrel. Against this background, USD/RUB may reach the psychological level of 60, and EUR/RUB – the level of 63.5.

Past has not yet been fully incorporated into the ruble exchange rate. If we look at the cost of a barrel in rubles, it is now at the level of 3612.7, which is a two-year high. So the potential for the ruble to strengthen in soon is saved.

However, the latest dollar exchange rate forecasts for 2017, as well as market sentiment, may change. The reason may be the failure to comply with agreements between oil-producing countries to reduce quotas by individual participants (from a technological point of view, it is difficult to sharply reduce production, and investments in individual projects have already been allocated for 2017) and the activation of shale projects (at an oil price of 60 dollars per barrel, they return to profitability). In my opinion, in the first or second quarter of 2017, Brent may roll back to $50-55 per barrel, against this background the position of the ruble will also weaken».

« How will it affect the ruble? , it’s hard to say yet. On the one hand, foreign policy pressure on Russia may weaken. On the other hand, Trump advocates US energy independence; shale projects may intensify in the coming years, and this is negative for oil prices and the ruble.

In our opinion, the current positivity in the foreign exchange market should be perceived as a New Year's gift, for example, you can purchase currency with a “New Year's discount,” especially if you plan to spend the New Year holidays at Christmas sales in Europe or at Alpine ski resorts».

Analyst from the FINAM group of companies Bogdan Zvarich said that the dollar exchange rate in 2017, as before, will depend mainly on the price of oil. However, the expert also warned that one should not rejoice at the excessive strengthening of the ruble, since this could lead to negative consequences:

“In my opinion, the main factor for the Russian currency will be the dynamics of oil prices. And here players will carefully watch how the agreements reached within OPEC and OPEC+ are observed. If exporters manage not to violate their obligations, and these agreements are extended into the second half of 2017, this will provide significant support to the ruble. However, we do not expect strong strengthening.

It is quite possible that the average dollar exchange rate in 2017 will be about 60 rubles. Further strengthening of the ruble is not beneficial either for the government, since this will reduce the volume of tax revenues from oil and gas companies, or for producers - the real sector will lose its competitiveness with the strengthening of the ruble.”

As for more accurate figures, you should look at the forecasts of serious financial organizations both in the West and in Russia itself. We list only the most significant and recent forecasts for the dollar exchange rate for 2017:

• dollar exchange rate for 2017, experts from an American banking holding company Morgan Stanley they think it will be 85 rubles for 1 dollar - at the very beginning of the year, 80 - the second quarter, 78 - the third, by the end of the year - a decrease to 76;
• investment bank forecast Merill Lynch quite constant - for the whole next year - 65 rubles per 1 dollar;
• the Russian analyst who predicted the crisis and mortgage recession in the United States in 2008 - the national currency of the Russian Federation will experience wave-like growth, reaching 97 rubles, a decrease, then a rise again to 110 rubles per dollar;
• at Ministry of Economic Development Russia has several scenarios. The basic forecast for the dollar exchange rate for 2017 is 67.2 rubles, the worst expectations are 81 rubles per dollar;
• forecast APECON(Russian Economic Forecasting Agency) - a fall in the first quarter to 63 rubles, then an increase until the end of the year to 74.4 rubles. By the way, the rise will be stable – 2.5% per month.

As a result, the dollar exchange rate forecast for 2017 has the following “average range” – from 65 to 80 rubles per dollar. As for the price floating between quarters, there are many political factors. If we consider 2017 chronologically, the following picture emerges:

• spring– The EU can lift sanctions against the Russian Federation, then there is a possibility of the ruble rising by 10-25%. Otherwise, the mark will be the same;
• by the beginning of summer- activity will subside somewhat, therefore, wherever the ruble is, it will again be pulled closer to the current rate (62-67). Of course, this is provided that OPEC adheres to the planned restrictions on oil production, and its price does not “jump”, provoking a weakening of the ruble;
• autumn- the Russian currency may be influenced by a series of elections in EU countries. Most likely, the current European elites will be able to retain power, that is, there will be no shocks in the world market, and therefore the ruble will not exceed the value of 67.

Also, the dollar exchange rate for 2017 (experts agree here) will not “jump” if the US Federal Reserve still does not decide to raise the interest rate.

Experts give an ambiguous forecast for the dollar exchange rate for December 2017, and disagree on where the ruble will move and what role the dollar will play for the Russian currency.

Of course, residents of Russia are already accustomed to the fact that by the end of the year it invariably declines, against the backdrop of the strengthening of the dollar and the euro.

However, there are experts who claim that by the end of this year the ruble will go up, not down. If we consider analytical statements on this issue, then opinions are divided into two opposing groups.

Some experts seriously believe that in December the ruble will continue to slightly, but still noticeably, strengthen against the dollar, and the American currency will give way.

Others call the ruble exchange rate floating, and the dollar an increasingly attractive currency for timely investments.

Thus, optimists forecast the dollar exchange rate for December 2017 at around 55 rubles per unit.

Pessimists look at the current situation more sensibly: there are those who seriously believe that the dollar exchange rate will confidently remain around 65 rubles per unit.

We are inclined to see the truth in the second option: in November alone, the dollar showed a not very strong, but quite confident growth from 57 to a little over 59 rubles, so its further growth will not raise any questions for anyone.

Why will the dollar exchange rate continue to rise?

The tightening of monetary policy led to the fact that the Federal rate was increased four times. Next year, the rate is also expected to increase repeatedly while the balance decreases.

This will be one of the factors that will strengthen the dollar. The attractiveness of the dollar is so strong that assets of all types are now trading at their highest levels of the year, and the market is overheated towards the dollar.

In turn, such popularity of the American currency has led to the fact that capital from the markets of developing countries is slowly changing its movement, risky markets find themselves without financing, and investments are directed to developed countries.

In addition, the sanctions regime against Russia is likely to continue indefinitely. And Trump’s presidency suggests that new sanctions measures will be introduced that will worsen the situation of the ruble.

As for the ruble, for now the ruble ignores the stability of the oil market and the rising cost of a barrel of raw materials. If previously the ruble responded quite sensitively to oil growth, today we do not observe this connection.

While the ruble exchange rate remains under pressure from several significant factors at once, one should not expect that the Russian currency will be able to strengthen. This means that the expected dollar exchange rate of 65-67 rubles per unit is quite realistic.

Next year will be a year of economic growth, the government believes. The rise will be expressed in a position that stabilizes. The state must carry out reforms for this. As a rule, the population bases its financial situation on the exchange rate, especially after its sharp jump two years ago. Putting aside all unnecessary thoughts, people start thinking about saving and accumulating funds. Obviously, we will say only one thing: the forecasts are different, from the most optimal to the negative. It is impossible to predict anything for sure. Having calculated all the indicators, you still need to take into account a lot of nuances. If, for example, you look at forecasting over past years, you can understand that this is a thankless task. The dollar was supposed to be no more than fifty-six rubles, but in reality everything turned out differently. Another thing is of interest: an American unit of seventy-eight rubles is the maximum, or is there a possibility that the dollar exchange rate will rise again in 2017. So what will happen to the dollar in 2017?

Dollar exchange rate from the IMF and the Ministry of Economic Development in 2017

Next year will be marked by a one percent increase in GDP, IMF analysts believe. This year the figure has decreased, but noticeably slower than last year. A prerequisite for improvement is the situation on the world “political scene”. The Ministry of Economic Development expects that the ruble will be worth seventy rubles next year. This situation is unlikely to please the common population. An important factor will be oil prices; if the price of forty dollars does not increase, then the currency will increase to seventy-five rubles. And the stagnation will continue for an indefinite period. The department recently foresaw this state of affairs.

There is a better arrangement. The condition is the same oil; if the price per barrel is fifty to sixty dollars, the situation will move from the “dead” point. The authorities cannot give an accurate assessment of the picture and which of the options should be taken as a basis. In the event of a bad state of affairs, the ruble will rise to the figure of seventy-eight, which will entail a high inflation rate. Inflation this year will be at 8.8 percent, next year it will drop to seven. It is possible to significantly reduce the indicators only after two years. The department believes that 2017 will entail a decline in the material wealth of Russians and poor retail trade.

If quotes are at the level of fifty-five to sixty dollars, then investments will come into the economy; now the financial situation discourages any investment and a decrease in the cost of a barrel will only reduce these indicators in the future. A large number of experts believe that we need to prepare for the worst in order to prepare the country’s budget in advance. Expenditures must also be reduced, and they will have to be covered thanks to reserve funds. The Ministry of Economic Development predicted a difficult situation with reserves. The most modest expenses will result in the figure of nine hundred and fifty-three billion rubles. next year. The funds will become poorer to the tune of five hundred billion, which is very undesirable.

The Ministry of Economic Development forecasts the dollar exchange rate at 75 rubles in 2017

Forecast of the dollar exchange rate in 2017 from experts

Experts continue to forecast the dollar exchange rate in 2017. In six years, the currency rose forty percent against the ruble. The bad situation in world society will only make things worse. The National Bank tried to influence the exchange rate, but the attempts were in vain. Experts say that the government can improve the situation by controlling the inflation rate. Leading economists are not encouraging, the dollar will remain at around seventy-five, and an increase in the indicator is not excluded next year. Surely, no one can predict the picture, because the situation is decided by all the smallest details, but for people everything turns out unfavorably. If the exchange rate rises, prices will rise significantly, and salaries and social standards, alas, do not exist. There are also elections coming up, which should affect the situation. Maintaining the course must happen by any means this year, but next year the situation may become tense. Experts say that we need to come to terms with the fact that the ruble will not return to its old value, but will follow the example of the Ukrainian hryvnia, which has tripled in two years.

The American holding provided figures for this year and next. Forecasts changed under the influence of oil prices. This year, Americans predict:

• eighty-two rubles in the first quarter;
• eighty-three in the second quarter;
• eighty-five in the third;
• for the fourth period the ruble will be eighty-seven.

Next year the numbers are:

• in the first quarter eighty-five rubles;
• in the second quarter eighty rubles;
• in the third seventy-eight;
• in the fourth quarter the ruble will stop at seventy-six.

Everything is ambiguous. Looking at the numbers, you can see a positive trend for 2017 and a bad one for this year. The main thing is that the average value of the currency over two years will not live up to expectations.

One of the analytical departments brought to light a terrible theory about terrible figures, namely two hundred and ten rubles per dollar. Such forecasts are taken from the calculations of the oil market. If sanctions are lifted from Iran, oil prices will “float” down. A drop of about twenty-five dollars per barrel is expected at the end of this year or the beginning of next. For Russia this will turn into a disaster. Iran is determined to compete, because the country's planned figures are incredible, namely one million barrels per day. If this is confirmed, the market price will change dramatically.

Our experts predict more and more positively. The dollar exchange rate for 2017 in Russia should be no more than sixty-five rubles for 2017. Although the Apekon department believes that the currency will rise to ninety-two rubles.

Only if the inflation rate decreases and the average income of people increases is it possible to bring the national currency back to normal. The Central Bank plans to reduce the rate, which will improve the credit situation in the economy. In general, there are many nuances. Much will depend on the government and its desire to carry out reforms and renovations in the economy.

Experts do not have a consensus on the dollar exchange rate in 2017

Political opinion on the dollar exchange rate in 2017

The crisis situation has hit hard the economic situation of the country. GDP fell due to the country's dependence on the primary industry. Oil caused the economy to contract by three percent last year. The sanctions affected GDP, reducing it by half a percent. Plus, analysts believe that the oil market will no longer be the same, so the authorities need to change the vector of direction and develop other promising areas. It is very important to reduce the share of the public sector in the most important areas of the economy. It is important to carry out tax reform, which should help business development in Russia. Such innovations will help remove the “noose from the neck” of the Russian economy and “test” the waters for an increase in economic indicators. Improvements in foreign policy are expected next year. GDP growth is expected to be one percent and the ruble will strengthen. What could shake such a forecast? First of all, the price of oil, if quotes continue to fall, there can be no talk of any growth.

The next factor is sanctions; if the countries of the world do not lift their restrictions, the normalization of the national currency is not expected. Sanctions prevent the economy from developing and reduce capital investment in the country, and the banking system is not able to work international level. The sanctions policy has blocked the way in market relations, which also does not contribute to the power of the ruble.

The balance of payments also plays a vital role in the financial position of the state. The main task is to reduce the outflow of funds from the country, which will help restore the balance between oil and the ruble exchange rate. If the price of “black gold” is low, capital will be exported from the country, so whatever one may say, the attachment to such quotes is very high.

The Ministry of Economic Development says that the country has a plan in case of a critical price per barrel. The budget was calculated based on a price of fifty dollars, now radical measures need to be taken to influence the dollar exchange rate in 2017 in Russia. The head of state set a limit on the deficit position in the budget of no more than three percent, this is the maximum value. Experts believed that in this situation the ruble would rise to around one hundred and forty. Previously, the PRC was considered the main buyer of Russian oil. Now, due to changes in the country’s economy, the situation is different, plus China’s plan to invest in our economy has failed due to the protracted crisis.

Probabilities of default due to the dollar exchange rate in 2017

Around the world, foreign departments are openly escalating the situation around the situation of the domestic economy, underestimating indicators to the most dangerous levels, relative to the forecast for the dollar exchange rate. The word “default” is heard very often. This is a collapse for every country, because the treasury in this situation is incapable of covering expenditures and social standards. In this case, the public debt grows significantly due to various types credit assistance, as an example you can put Greece and its difficult situation on at the moment. To avoid a default, Russia needs to increase its revenue to a trillion rubles. Reserves should be at least five hundred million rubles next year. To preserve reserves, you need to take a number of measures, including:

• withdraw a share of money from the National Welfare Fund, but experts believe that in this way there is a possibility of increasing public debt;
• start the emission process, which is already happening;
• cut down on expenses.

Spending is expected to decrease by two hundred billion this year and one trillion next year. You can’t just cut the budget, so all this will have an impact on social payments, in particular the indexation of pensions.

Default in 2017 still likely

Final forecast for the ruble exchange rate in 2017

The best analysts unanimously insist that the crisis situation in the country has not yet reached its peak, which is scheduled for 2017-2018. The government should be afraid of the reaction of the population, which may express protests. Industry in the state is currently on a decline, which only leads to a worsening of the economic situation, because The national currency is closely linked to production. The first thing you need to pay attention to is raising the industrial level. The process of stagnation will definitely affect domestic producers. First of all, in order to allow the economy to accelerate, it is necessary to achieve the lifting of international sanctions. If economic reforms are successful, people will be able to feel the changes in a couple of years at best. Analysts believe that sanctions have not yet “killed” the economy, but it is unrealistic to give it a push forward along with restrictions. According to forecasts, the country faces five years of stagnation, because investments in the state are not happening and it is still absolutely unknown what the authorities are going to do about it. There is no hope that suddenly there will be dreamers who will rush to invest in the domestic industry.

The instability of the economy is most clearly reflected in the dollar and euro exchange rates against the ruble. At the same time, not only internal processes are important, but also the news that happens, for example, in Ukraine, Syria and other countries. Everyone is trying to predict the relationship between currencies in 2017 - from experts, analysts and politicians to psychics and astrologers. It is important for the forecast for next year to determine what the situation with oil will be at the end of 2017.

For example, Bank of America in October modeled a negative scenario in which the cost of a barrel of oil would be $25. In this case, you will have to pay more than 95 rubles for one dollar bill. However, it is better to trust those who are inside the country. For example, the opinion of the head and chairman of the board of the Central Bank should be taken into account by you. Thus, Alexey Simanovsky expressed optimistic assumptions that we can expect a strengthening of the domestic currency at a stable level in the economic market from the beginning of 2017.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for 2017 in Russia from experts