What will happen to the dollar (ruble) in the near future - forecasts and expert opinions. What will happen to the dollar (ruble) in the near future - forecasts and expert opinions Official forecast of the dollar exchange rate for the year

In 2017, experts on the dollar exchange rate make predictions based on data that has already been confirmed, but several experts can make opposite predictions using the same data. Financial experts spend a lot of time making forecasts, because... this is important for the country's economy.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for 2017 in Russia. Expert forecasts

What the USD exchange rate will be in the coming year matters not only for deputies and other politicians, because The unstable financial situation in the country primarily affects the common people. Prices are starting to rise, but wages on the contrary, it decreases. Experts predicted what the dollar exchange rate will be in 2017. It is worth noting that the opinion regarding the American currency is not clear. So, we will find out in our article.

Optimistic forecast for 2017

The analytical alignment is based not only on the numbers that are present, but also on hope and expectations, for this reason the Russian may receive not entirely accurate monitoring. But analysts agreed that in 2017 the average price of one USD will be 65 Russian rubles. Experts also say that during the year there will be a fall in the value of the dollar, but it will not last long.

Basically, the dollar rate will remain at the same level of approximately 60-70 rubles. Such monitoring was provided by academicians of RANEPA ( Russian Academy national economy and public service). Academics have found that import substitution is thriving in the country, so the Russian ruble has strengthened, and the country’s economy is recovering with confidence.

According to the government, the price of oil on the markets will rise to $95, which will cause the USD to cost no more than 40 rubles. Along with the fall of the dollar, domestic production should increase, which will cause GDP growth.

The crisis observed in 2008 was worldwide, and currently affects mainly only the territory of Russia. Manufacturers in the industrial sector have lost the opportunity to receive imported equipment necessary for production. If you remember what dollar jumps there were in 2016, you will notice that currently the USD is not growing very noticeably, but regularly.

Pessimistic dollar exchange rate forecast

Due to the fact that collapses regularly occur in the oil market, experts have concluded that the economic situation of the country may not change in better side. Politicians plan to develop exports, but there have been no official statements about strengthening the currency.

Sterina and Devyatov - economists commercial bank UralSib made a statement saying that the price of oil could fall to 33 USD, respectively, the cost of $ would rise to 80 against the Russian ruble. But they made an amendment that the process may turn out to be softer, because There are currently a large number of offers on the oil market.

Thus, the pessimistic forecast of experts says that in 2017 oil will cost no more than $35, and USD will be equal to approximately 85 rubles.

Real situation

What will the $ exchange rate be in reality? Will the sanctions, which have a strong impact on the economic state of the country, be lifted? The conflict associated with Ukraine still continues and therefore European countries have decided not to lift sanctions against Russia yet; perhaps in 2017 they will, on the contrary, be strengthened.

The country's position in the oil market

Former Minister of Finance Russian Federation, Alexey Kudrin expressed his opinion, based on which, the price per barrel of oil could fall to 25 USD, and a little earlier a similar forecast was made by the First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, Dmitry Tulin.

In the situation in which the country currently finds itself, the Central Bank made a preliminary monitoring - the price of oil in 2017 will be equal to 35 dollars, which forces us to lean toward a pessimistic forecast. But such monitoring is preliminary, and the exact result will become known in March.

Monitoring for a year

Dollar exchange rate forecast for January 2017

In the first month of 2017, the price of USD will be 66.33. The maximum price of the dollar in January will not rise above 66 rubles 33 kopecks and will not fall below 63 rubles 60 kopecks. Experts have found that the average cost of $ for January 2017 will be 65.20.

Monitoring for February 2017

In the first days of the month, the dollar price will stop at 64.6. The maximum price in February for USD will be 67 rubles 20 kopecks, and the minimum will be 64.70. The average USD exchange rate for February is 65.7 Russian rubles.

Prediction for March 2017

At the beginning of the month, the cost of $ will be 66.20. During the month, the price of USD will not rise above this figure, but will periodically decrease, and the minimum value will be 63.5. The average cost of the US dollar in March will be 65 rubles.

Monitoring for April 2017

In early April, the cost of USD will be 64 rubles 60 kopecks. Throughout the month, the price of American currency will rise, but not higher than 66 rubles 45 kopecks. And the minimum value of the dollar in April is 64.65. The average price for USD against the Russian ruble is 65.30.

Forecast for May 2017

In the initial numbers, the cost of $ will be 65.6. The maximum price during April is 65.85. The minimum cost will reach 64.4.

Prediction of the dollar exchange rate for June 2017

In the first days of the month, the cost of USD will be 64 rubles 20 kopecks. The price of the US dollar will not rise above this figure during June, but periodic declines will reach a minimum of 61.40. The average cost according to specialist monitoring will be 63.20.

Forecast for July 2017

At the beginning of the month, the price of USD will be 62 rubles 20 kopecks. During the month, the price will periodically rise and fall. The maximum will rise to 63.1 and drop to 61.40. The average price is 62 rubles 20 kopecks.

Monitoring for August 2017

In the first days of the month, the price of the currency will be 62.40. the maximum cost will be 65 rubles, and the minimum cost will be 62 rubles 40 kopecks. The average cost is 63 rubles 40 kopecks.

Forecast for September 2017

Experts promise that the price of the American dollar in early September will be 64 rubles 40 kopecks. The maximum price of USD in September is 66.6, and the minimum price is 64.40. The average cost is 65.10.

Monitoring for October 2017

In the first days of the month, USD will cost 65 rubles 60 kopecks. The maximum price for a dollar in October will be 68 rubles 10 kopecks, and the minimum will be 65.40. The average value will be 66 rubles 70 kopecks.

Price prediction for November 2017

In the first days of the month, the cost of the dollar will be 67 Russian rubles and 30 kopecks. During the month, the price of the American dollar will not rise above this figure, but periodic declines will reach a minimum level of 64 rubles 90 kopecks. The average price for USD is 66 rubles 30 kopecks.

Monitoring for December 2017

At the beginning of the last month of the year, the price for USD will be 65 rubles 90 kopecks. During the month, the maximum price will be fixed at 68.6, and the minimum will be 65.98. The average cost of a currency is 66 rubles 90 kopecks.

Experts give an ambiguous forecast for the dollar exchange rate for December 2017, and disagree on where the ruble will move and what role the dollar will play for the Russian currency.

Of course, residents of Russia are already accustomed to the fact that by the end of the year it invariably declines, against the backdrop of the strengthening of the dollar and the euro.

However, there are experts who claim that by the end of this year the ruble will go up, not down. If we consider analytical statements on this issue, then opinions are divided into two opposing groups.

Some experts seriously believe that in December the ruble will continue to slightly, but still noticeably, strengthen against the dollar, and the American currency will give way.

Others call the ruble exchange rate floating, and the dollar an increasingly attractive currency for timely investments.

Thus, optimists forecast the dollar exchange rate for December 2017 at around 55 rubles per unit.

Pessimists look at the current situation more sensibly: there are those who seriously believe that the dollar exchange rate will confidently remain around 65 rubles per unit.

We are inclined to see the truth in the second option: in November alone, the dollar showed a not very strong, but quite confident growth from 57 to a little over 59 rubles, so its further growth will not raise any questions for anyone.

Why will the dollar exchange rate continue to rise?

The tightening of monetary policy led to the fact that the Federal rate was increased four times. Next year, the rate is also expected to increase repeatedly while the balance decreases.

This will be one of the factors that will strengthen the dollar. The attractiveness of the dollar is so strong that assets of all types are now trading at their highest levels of the year, and the market is overheated towards the dollar.

In turn, such popularity of the American currency has led to the fact that capital from the markets of developing countries is slowly changing its movement, risky markets find themselves without financing, and investments are directed to developed countries.

In addition, the sanctions regime against Russia is likely to continue indefinitely. And Trump’s presidency suggests that new sanctions measures will be introduced that will worsen the situation of the ruble.

As for the ruble, for now the ruble ignores the stability of the oil market and the rising cost of a barrel of raw materials. If previously the ruble responded quite sensitively to oil growth, today we do not observe this connection.

While the ruble exchange rate remains under pressure from several significant factors at once, one should not expect that the Russian currency will be able to strengthen. This means that the expected dollar exchange rate of 65-67 rubles per unit is quite realistic.

The American currency is now one of the main world ones. It is in US dollars that all payments between banks and other organizations in different countries are most often carried out. Along with the euro, this monetary unit is the most stable and the Russian ruble is compared with it for devaluation. Among ordinary citizens, the dollar is in demand: they prefer to store personal savings either in dollars or euros. It's more reliable. And therefore, it is not surprising that in the conditions of the modern economy and the significant growth of this currency, almost every person in our state is interested in: what awaits the dollar in 2017?

Of course, it is quite difficult to understand all the intricacies and aspects of financial forecasting of the exchange rate without appropriate education and training. And it is quite difficult for an ordinary person to keep track of all the events that affect the value of a particular currency. Therefore, forecasts for the 2017 dollar/ruble exchange rate from well-known experts in this field are of greatest interest. We invite our interested readers to familiarize themselves with an overview of forecasts regarding the value of the US dollar from the most famous experts in this field, as well as the main reasons influencing it.

Forecasts from experts

Current analyst forecasts for the dollar exchange rate in 2017 have a significant spread in the expected figures. However, the general trend can still be traced. This applies to both the exchange rate itself and the external and internal circumstances influencing it.

Morgan Stanley

One of the largest banks in America, with a long history of investing, has a good reputation among analysts. Experts from this bank at the beginning of this year announced their own forecast for the dollar/ruble exchange rate in 2017. In their opinion, the ruble significantly depends on the cost of oil, the fall of which will affect its exchange rate in the very near future. At the end of the current year, the value of the dollar is expected to be around 87 rubles. And next year it will become cheaper, albeit slightly. The quarterly forecast for the American currency from Morgan Stanley is as follows: 85 rubles at the very beginning of the year, 80 in the second quarter, 78 in the third, and by the end the rate will drop to 76 rubles per dollar.

MERILL LYNCH

America's largest investment bank. Assessing the current situation on the oil market and world economy, experts expect some stability in Russia next year. Their forecast for the ruble against the dollar is also constant for the entire next year - 65 rubles per 1 US dollar. And this despite their forecasts last year for the collapse of the Russian currency. At that moment, they explained this possibility by the need to reduce the significant budget deficit in our country.

Stepan Demur's forecast

A well-known Russian analyst who has earned everyone's trust since 2008 by predicting the mortgage recession in America, the fall in oil prices, and also the depreciation of the ruble. Despite his general positive outlook, the forecast for what the dollar exchange rate will be, he voices is not at all positive. He believes that the dollar will experience wave-like growth in the foreseeable future: having reached 97 rubles, it will fall, then rise again to 110 rubles, and so on. In his opinion, there is no point in waiting for the ruble to consolidate and the American currency to depreciate next year.

Forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development

Ministry economic development The Russian Federation has developed several possible scenarios for next year. The basic option assumes the cost of oil is about 40 dollars per barrel, and the cost of the dollar itself is 67.2 rubles. A less optimistic, and, fortunately, less probable forecast of an oil price of about 25 dollars determines its cost of 80-81 rubles. So far, the basic scenario is confirmed, but with minor adjustments.

APECON Forecast

The Russian Economic Forecasting Agency in its publications describes in sufficient detail what the dollar expects in 2017 in Russia. The fall in the first quarter to 63 rubles, in their opinion, will be replaced by a further increase by the end of the year to 74.4 rubles. Monthly growth will be stable - about 2.5%. Their assessment is based on assumptions about the cost of oil and forecasts for the country's economy as a whole.

Forecast from M. L. Khazin

An authoritative specialist, Russian economist and President of the Foundation for Economic Research, Mikhail Khazin, also voices his opinion on the near future. He believes that many processes in the country depend on the results of the Duma elections. The current economic model is outdated, and to update it, alternative solutions are needed, which will not happen if the country’s leadership remains in place. If the outcome is unfavorable, namely if four parties retain power, the Russian economy will face a crisis. This is precisely what Khazin’s forecast for the dollar exchange rate is based on: if the governing parties remain, the ruble will fall very much, and changes in the composition of the Duma may suggest new model and economic growth. However, his opinion is refuted by some eminent investors. Thus, the asset manager of Promsvyaz Management Company A. Prisyazhnyuk believes that the upcoming elections to the State Duma will not have a significant impact on economic situation in the country and the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar and euro for the following reasons. Firstly, the situation is largely due to external factors. Secondly, the direction on major issues is now determined by the president, not the Duma. Also, in his opinion, the dependence of the ruble on oil is decreasing, and in the future this trend will only strengthen.

Gaidar Institute Forecasting

A fundamentally different opinion on the question - is it possible for the dollar to fall in 2017? – presented by Gaidar Institute analysts. In their opinion, the dollar next year will drop to 65-60 rubles. This optimistic opinion is disputed by many, however, experts from this institute have grounds for affirming such a position. I must say, this is a forecast that you want to believe in.

So what will happen to the dollar in 2017?

Real forecasts for the most part speak of its growth, which will begin in the second quarter of next year. The expected rate at the end of the year will be 70-90 rubles per American dollar bill. There are more categorical options, which predict both a fall in the dollar and a significant devaluation of the ruble. But such scenarios will only be justified if unforeseen circumstances arise.

Factors influencing the rate

Based on these forecasts, the following can be highlighted. There are three key points that significantly influence what the dollar-ruble exchange rate will be in 2017. At the same time, in fact, the leadership of our country cannot influence them. And all forecasts for the value of the American currency are based directly on assumptions about their possible changes.

Oil. The most important source of income for our country and therefore the main support of the currency. Iran, from which sanctions were lifted six months ago, entered the black gold market. Regular production and supply of oil from there reduces average price and, as a result, affects the Russian economy as a whole and how much the dollar will cost in 2017 in our country in particular.

Balance of payments– reflects foreign economic transactions. Insufficient cash flow leads to a depreciation of the local currency. This is exactly what we can see as a consequence of the economic sanctions of the European Union.

Actually sanctions. The introduced economic restrictions in relation to Russia are quite significant for the treasury. Financial injections into the budget from deals with European partners have dried up. There is no investment. This greatly shook the ruble, and continues to have a negative impact on it.

Also, the value of the ruble will certainly be influenced by internal circumstances:

Budget deficit. The crisis has drained almost all available funds from the country's reserve funds. Already, the budget deficit for 2017 is being announced at 3%. And this, I must say, is a fairly low figure. Of course, the Government and the Central Bank are doing everything possible to curb inflation, but a scenario cannot be ruled out in which the required funds will be additionally printed, and this will almost instantly lower the value of the ruble against the currency.

Inflation, or growth consumer prices, of course, will affect the exchange rate. Now it is officially predicted at 4-5%, but this is subject to fairly favorable developments. So the ruble will fall in price by at least this percentage.

It is obvious that all of these factors are closely related to each other: changes in one lead to changes in the other. And yet there are many options. So no one can confidently say what will happen to the dollar exchange rate in our country. The most pessimistic forecasts for the exchange rate are voiced under the most unfavorable economic conditions: up to 210 rubles per dollar. Positive expectations – exchange rate growth of no more than 10%. Based on the information provided, everyone can draw their own conclusions. Well, which of them will be justified - time will tell us.

In recent years, Moscow has been trying to achieve trade in national currencies with Cairo, Beijing, New Delhi, Ankara and many others. But the latest forecasts for the dollar exchange rate for 2017 show that the dependence of the Russian economy on the value of the dollar is still too great. It's stupid to deny it.

Of course, no one can give a guaranteed forecast for the dollar exchange rate for 2017. However, it is possible to highlight the main points that can increase or decrease the value of the Russian national currency.

Senior analyst at the largest brokerage company Alpari Roman Tkachuk shared his thoughts with the editors and gave his latest forecast for the dollar exchange rate for 2017:

Roman Tkachuk | Youtube

« Firstly, the general trend of the dollar strengthening on world markets remains in force; next year parity between the dollar and the euro is likely. Secondly, for last year The ruble has actually developed immunity to fluctuations in oil prices. This is explained, among other things, by the fact that the Russian budget has become less dependent on petrodollars. In addition, in 2016, Brent volatility was up to 3-5% per day, these are normal intraday fluctuations for a commodity asset, but not for the national currency, so the ruble exchange rate was more smoothed.

If for another 2-3 years the ruble exchange rate followed oil prices as if it were pegged, now the dependence has decreased. Nevertheless, the oil factor remains decisive for the ruble. Now the oil market is positive, and we do not rule out that at the end of 2016-beginning of 2017, Brent will test the level of 60-61 dollars per barrel. Against this background, USD/RUB may reach the psychological level of 60, and EUR/RUB – the level of 63.5.

Past has not yet been fully incorporated into the ruble exchange rate. If we look at the cost of a barrel in rubles, it is now at the level of 3612.7, which is a two-year high. So the potential for the ruble to strengthen in soon is saved.

However, the latest dollar exchange rate forecasts for 2017, as well as market sentiment, may change. The reason may be the failure to comply with agreements between oil-producing countries to reduce quotas by individual participants (from a technological point of view, it is difficult to sharply reduce production, and investments in individual projects have already been allocated for 2017) and the activation of shale projects (at an oil price of 60 dollars per barrel, they return to profitability). In my opinion, in the first or second quarter of 2017, Brent may roll back to $50-55 per barrel, against this background the position of the ruble will also weaken».

« How will it affect the ruble? , it’s hard to say yet. On the one hand, foreign policy pressure on Russia may weaken. On the other hand, Trump advocates US energy independence; shale projects may intensify in the coming years, and this is negative for oil prices and the ruble.

In our opinion, the current positivity in the foreign exchange market should be perceived as a New Year's gift, for example, you can purchase currency with a “New Year's discount,” especially if you plan to spend the New Year holidays at Christmas sales in Europe or at Alpine ski resorts».

Analyst from the FINAM group of companies Bogdan Zvarich said that the dollar exchange rate in 2017, as before, will depend mainly on the price of oil. However, the expert also warned that one should not rejoice at the excessive strengthening of the ruble, since this could lead to negative consequences:

“In my opinion, the main factor for the Russian currency will be the dynamics of oil prices. And here players will carefully watch how the agreements reached within OPEC and OPEC+ are observed. If exporters manage not to violate their obligations, and these agreements are extended into the second half of 2017, this will provide significant support to the ruble. However, we do not expect strong strengthening.

It is quite possible that the average dollar exchange rate in 2017 will be about 60 rubles. Further strengthening of the ruble is not beneficial either for the government, since this will reduce the volume of tax revenues from oil and gas companies, or for producers - the real sector will lose its competitiveness with the strengthening of the ruble.”

As for more accurate figures, you should look at the forecasts of serious financial organizations both in the West and in Russia itself. We list only the most significant and recent forecasts for the dollar exchange rate for 2017:

• dollar exchange rate for 2017, experts from an American banking holding company Morgan Stanley they think it will be 85 rubles for 1 dollar - at the very beginning of the year, 80 - the second quarter, 78 - the third, by the end of the year - a decrease to 76;
• investment bank forecast Merill Lynch quite constant - for the whole next year - 65 rubles per 1 dollar;
• the Russian analyst who predicted the crisis and mortgage recession in the United States in 2008 - the national currency of the Russian Federation will experience wave-like growth, reaching 97 rubles, a decrease, then a rise again to 110 rubles per dollar;
• at Ministry of Economic Development Russia has several scenarios. The basic forecast for the dollar exchange rate for 2017 is 67.2 rubles, the worst expectations are 81 rubles per dollar;
• forecast APECON(Russian Economic Forecasting Agency) - a fall in the first quarter to 63 rubles, then an increase until the end of the year to 74.4 rubles. By the way, the rise will be stable – 2.5% per month.

As a result, the dollar exchange rate forecast for 2017 has the following “average range” – from 65 to 80 rubles per dollar. As for the price floating between quarters, there are many political factors. If we consider 2017 chronologically, the following picture emerges:

• spring– The EU can lift sanctions against the Russian Federation, then there is a possibility of the ruble rising by 10-25%. Otherwise, the mark will be the same;
• by the beginning of summer- activity will subside somewhat, therefore, wherever the ruble is, it will again be pulled closer to the current rate (62-67). Of course, this is provided that OPEC adheres to the planned restrictions on oil production, and its price does not “jump”, provoking a weakening of the ruble;
• autumn- the Russian currency may be influenced by a series of elections in EU countries. Most likely, the current European elites will be able to retain power, that is, there will be no shocks in the world market, and therefore the ruble will not exceed the value of 67.

Also, the dollar exchange rate for 2017 (experts agree here) will not “jump” if the US Federal Reserve still does not decide to raise the interest rate.

Positions of the Russian currency in USD/RUB pair remain dependent on the oil market and external factors. In addition, the country still faces risks of growing budget deficits and declining reserves, which does not give much reason for optimism. Despite this development of the situation, experts do not predict a significant increase in the dollar exchange rate at the beginning of 2017.

The US Federal Reserve is expected to increase the discount rate, which will lead to an outflow of resources from emerging markets, including the Russian Federation. However, the ruble is expected to react moderately to the rate increase. In addition, market participants expect the normalization of US-Russian relations in the near future after the election of US President Donald Trump. This allows us to talk about agreeing on the conditions for the lifting of Western sanctions, which will lead to an improvement in the position of the Russian currency.

Saxo Bank experts believe that ruble exchange rate in 2017 will increase this year, although strong growth is not expected in the oil market. The US is expected to ease or completely lift sanctions. However, the Russian economy will still not be in the black: analysts predict zero GDP growth.

It is worth noting the report of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. The Ministry of Economic Development in its updated forecast is based on an average annual rate of 67.5 rubles per dollar in 2017, 68.7 rubles per dollar in 2018 and 71.1 in 2019. These indicators were included in the draft main directions budget policy for 2017. Back in July, the Ministry of Finance in its budget projections included the Ministry of Economic Development's forecast for the dollar exchange rate in 2017 at the level of 64.8 rubles.

Oil is the main driver influencing the dollar/ruble exchange rate

Directly depends on the price of oil on the world market. According to officials from the Ministry of Economic Development, only an increase in oil prices can affect the stabilization of the Russian national currency. At $55 per barrel, investment activity is expected to recover, which will help keep budget revenues unchanged.

Possible scenarios for 2017

Positive. A possible increase in demand for raw materials in China and India, as well as a reduction in supply from OPEC, will at least partially eliminate the existing imbalance in the oil market. In this situation, an increase is expected with a target of $70-80 per barrel.

Neutral. The oil surplus in 2017 may continue, but expectations of a natural decline in production in the future against the backdrop of reduced investment in exploration and development of new projects will help stabilize prices around $45-60 per barrel.

Negative. The imbalance of supply and demand will remain in the market. A possible slowdown in the global economy will lead to a decrease in demand for “black gold”. Compliance with the OPEC agreement to reduce oil production also remains in question. This option assumes a reduction in prices to the area of ​​30-40 dollars per barrel.

Technical analysis and forecast of USD/RUB for 2017

The USD/RUB currency pair demonstrated a reversal of the global upward trend in April 2016, which is clearly visible on the weekly chart of the ruble. After this, the downward dynamics slowed down, and quotes formed an almost horizontal trading channel. However dollar/ruble continues to move within the descending channel, the price is testing the upper border. At the beginning of 2017, the price is expected to rebound downward to the support area of ​​60 rubles per dollar. It is worth noting that this level may interrupt the strengthening of the Russian currency. FOREX forecast dollar/ruble for 2017 assumes price movement within a downward channel.

The dynamics of oil prices also indicate a decline in the dollar exchange rate in the USD/RUB pair. Back in April 2016 (Brent price below $40 per barrel), the FOREX head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart seemed unlikely, but by the end of the year oil was trading around $54 per barrel. The RSI indicator is in the neutral zone, but near the resistance level, the breakdown of which will indicate a continuation of the oil rally.

Other materials